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A two-year-old European Union high court ruling became the center of controversy in the United Kingdom last month after racers there raised an alarm that the ruling’s unintended consequences could decimate motorsports there and across Europe.

Lambasted for potentially requiring owners and operators of every motorized vehicle from mobility scooters to bumper cars to race cars to obtain liability insurance for their vehicles, the European Court of Justice’s September 2014 ruling in the case of Vnuk v. Triglav (in which a farm worker, injured from a fall off a ladder caused by a tractor, initially found he could not collect an insurance payout from the tractor’s motor vehicle policy) found that the EU’s 2009 Motor Insurance Directive did not clearly distinguish between on-road and off-road use (partly as a result of inadequate translations) and therefore, any motor vehicle – regardless of its use on public or private property – must be insured.

The issue came to light last month after the UK’s Department for Transport initiated a process for merging the Vnuk ruling into UK law. That, in turn, set off a number of condemnations of the Vnuk ruling, including a widely distributed press release from the Motorcycle Industry Association and the Motorsport Industry Association, a petition asking the UK government to refuse to implement the ruling, and criticism from a number of UK officials.

It is important to realise that Vnuk is not an item of forthcoming legislation which can be lobbied against or amended, but an actual ruling of Europe’s highest court, with no further avenues for appeal possible. Vnuk is set in stone and cannot be changed. It requires third party damage and injury insurance to be in place for all mechanically propelled vehicles when used at any time, for any purpose and in any place. This includes motorsport vehicles.

The insurance industry has made it clear to government that third party risks for motorsport activities are uninsurable, not least because of the sheer number of potential vehicle damage claims that would arise. Therefore, if implemented, the Vnuk judgment would wipe out all legal motor and motorcycle sport activity.

Though the UK voted to leave the European Union last year, it remains subject to the EU’s laws until it officially separates from the EU.

The Department for Transport, in considering the Vnuk ruling, outlined three options: do nothing, require insurance for all on- and off-road motor vehicles according to the Vnuk ruling, or wait until the European Commission revises the Motor Insurance Directive. Department for Transport officials noted that they preferred the latter as it would mitigate the effects of the Vnuk judgment – most notably it would mean that use of vehicles on private land would not be in scope of the Directive.

Indeed, as motorcycle journalist David Emmett pointed out and as the Department for Transport noted in its assessment, the European Commission has already started to address the Vnuk ruling. Specifically, the EC began a review of the Motor Insurance Directive in August that contradicted the Vnuk ruling by claiming “the scope of the Motor Insurance Directive should be limited to the use of vehicles in the context of traffic.”

As the EC noted in the review, the Motor Insurance Directive does allow individual countries to exempt certain motor vehicles from the insurance requirement as long as payments from all other vehicles covers the exempted vehicles; individual countries could thus theoretically exempt all off-road vehicles from the insurance requirement, resulting in higher premiums for all on-road vehicles in that country.

However, the EC review also proposed amending the Motor Insurance Directive either to limit its definitions to include only the use of vehicles in traffic and on public roads or to specifically exclude certain vehicles – including race cars – from the directive and thus allow them to operate off public roads uninsured.

While the EC’s review was set to wrap up last fall, it remains under consideration. The UK’s consideration of the ruling, prompted in part by a lack of action on the EC review, will run through March. UK residents can comment on the Department for Transportation’s consideration at Gov.UK.

CRYSTAL BALL FOR 2017

SOMEONE'S CRYSTAL BALL

Thankfully, we’ve survived another trip around the sun, which means it’s time once again for our annual gaze into the crystal ball, which smells suspiciously of carb cleaner (reminding us to use a fresh shop rag to wipe it down next year). For the year that was, Mr. Dickens summed it up best by saying, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…”

As is tradition, we’ll begin with a look back at our accuracy rate for 2016 predictions:

Eighties cars will continue to grow in demand – and price. We’ll score this in the “correct” column for demand, though prices certainly haven’t begun to appreciate in a significant manner, Ferrari and air-cooled Porsche models excepted. A new generation of collectors is entering the hobby, and to many of them, it’s the cars from the ’80s that bring back memories of youth. It isn’t likely that a Reagan-era Dodge Caravan will out-price a Volkswagen 21-window Samba bus any time soon, but we’ve learned to never say never.
Look for Japanese family cars from the 1960s-’80s to climb in value. This falls into the “neither correct nor incorrect” category. Prices are certainly up on well-preserved examples, but the same can be said for cars of the period originating in just about any country. If a car evokes memories of childhood, there’s probably a market for it, and as demand outstrips supply, prices rise. In the case of Japanese family cars from the 1960s – ’80s, this rise was neither as sudden nor as dramatic as we expected.
Demand for vintage hot rods will increase. Correct, with a caveat. Hot rods built to someone else’s taste with radical paint, modern drivetrains and updated suspension remain a mixed bag, selling for impressive numbers only when the right buyer is found. On the other hand, period-correct cars built with bangers or flatheads enhanced with vintage speed parts are becoming more sought-after, which also translates to more expensive.
Expect an upswing in vintage motorcycle prices. Check. Not only have prices for prewar bikes risen, the number of auctions selling vintage iron have increased as well. Perhaps motorcycles, traditionally built in smaller numbers, are seen as a safer investment than collector cars, or perhaps buyers are simply yearning for a time when bikes were little more than two wheels, an engine, and a bit of chrome.
The glory days of the American V-8 are winding down. Not even close to correct on this, although it’s hard to say what the future has in store. In 2016, at least, the V-8 was safe, and having spent time in both the new Shelby GT350 Mustang and the Dodge Challenger Hellcat, better than it’s ever been. Armed with a big enough account balance, one can walk into a domestic car dealership and buy a V-8-powered pony car that puts down 707 horsepower, or one that revs to 8,200 RPM and still meets emissions numbers. If that’s not proof that this is a great time to be alive, we don’t know what is.

Housekeeping out of the way, let’s move on to our predictions for 2017

THE BARN FIND

Yes, a car is only original once, but on the other hand, driving a classic car should not come with a risk of tetanus or hantavirus. In the past three years, “barn finds” have grown from an eccentric offshoot of the auction business to an expected norm, with prices rising to mind-boggling levels. As functional cars, such vehicles often need extensive work to make them road-worthy, making an already expensive purchase even more of a financial risk. As art, few will appreciate thick dust (enhanced with authentic, period-correct bat guano), mouse-eaten upholstery and dry-rotted rubber. We say 2017 is the year that buyers begin to realize that a well-restored car may actually be more desirable than one showing decades of neglect.

PEAK "GARAGE TELEVISION"

Each year, it seems, brings with it another scripted “reality television” show about a long-suffering shop owner, tormented by inept employees and overbearing customers, forced to perform a ground-up restoration on a one-of-one Hemi Superbird with the factory incense burner and the Coyote Fur interior, with less than a week remaining before SEMA, MCACN, the Pillsbury Bake-Off, or some such event. In case you didn’t already know this, there is no “reality” in “reality television,” and the appeal of such shows has worn as thin as the chrome finish from a rattle can. Maybe this is little more than wishful thinking on our part, but we’d really like to believe the days when every channel with a leaning-male demographic shows endless reruns of this drivel are coming to an end.

TRANSAXLE PORSCHE

A rising tide raises all boats, and skyrocketing values for air-cooled Porsche 911s have driven up prices of 912s and, to a lesser degree, 914s. Though prices seem to have stabilized somewhat in the past year, the days of the affordable 911 seem to be behind us. Fortunately for driving enthusiasts yearning to own a car with the Porsche crest, the Stuttgart automaker’s transaxle models (924, 944, 928 and 968) remain relative bargains, though we don’t expect this to last forever. Buy one in the next year or so, or be prepared to kick yourself five years down the line.

DITTO FOR FIRST-GENERATION MIATA

Used first-generation (NA, in Mazda-speak) Mazda Miatas, built from 1989-’97, used to be plentiful and cheap, as few enthusiasts understood exactly how good these cars were, even in stock form. As more people came to understand this (and as the SCCA’s Spec Miata series exploded in popularity), the pool of available first-gen cars began to grow ever smaller. Today, it seems, there are just two kinds of NA Miatas left: the inexpensive ones, often heavily modified or suffering from terminal rocker-panel rust, and the collector examples, remarkably well-preserved and priced accordingly. Fortunately for those seeking an affordable sports car, the second-generation (NB) Miatas remain somewhat more abundant (and affordable), while the third-gen cars (the roomiest and most powerful normally aspirated examples) are now dipping into the realm of the affordable. If you’ve got your heart set on an NA, be aware that prices won’t be coming down in the future – buy the best example you can afford, as soon as you find it.