Thursday

HEMMINGS GIVES 2017 PREDICTIONS AND HOW THEY TURNED OUT

These appeared on this blog in January of 2017.....can't always be right:

  • We’ve reached peak “barn find.” Though the trend isn’t happening as fast as we’d like, we’re going to say we got this right last year. With every passing auction, there are fewer and fewer cars covered in period-correct filth and bedecked with designer tears in the upholstery. Some of the barn finds we’ve seen over the years even had us asking if the patina was genuine, or a clever enhancement designed to pump up a car’s value. Barn finds aren’t behind us—and perhaps they’ll never be—but at least they’re no longer a requirement at every high-end auction.
  • We’ve also reached peak “garage television.” Call this one a swing and a miss, and, sadly, the quality of most scripted “reality rebuild” shows is going nowhere but down. We’re still hearing about requests from production companies looking to cast the next big hit. Which, they believe, will consist of a harried shop owner, dealing with inept employees while trying to meet impossible deadlines for ungrateful customers. Seems like we’ve heard this one before…
  • If you’ve ever wanted a transaxle Porsche, now is the time to buy it. We were correct on this one, though some transaxle Porsches appreciated more than others. According to NADA Guides, the 924s we sampled (a 1977 924, a 1982 924, and a 1988 924S) went up in value by an average of $817, while the 928s sampled (a 1978 928, a 1986 928S, and a 1991 928 S4) appreciated by an average of $1,517. The big winner, however, was Porsche’s 944; our sample (a 1983 944, a 1986 944, and a 1991 944 S2) went up in value by an impressive $4,308. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
  • Ditto for a first-generation Miata. NADA Guides says we’re wrong on this, with a three-car sample (1990, 1994, and 1996 M) actually depreciating by an average of $292. Real-world experience, at least in the Northeast, shows that nice survivors (say, condition #2 and above) aren’t going down in price, though driver-quality cars may be. Each year sees fewer examples on the road, so sooner or later (in 2018, perhaps) our prediction will ring true. If you want one, buy the nicest example you can find today.
  • The success of The Race of Gentlemen will spawn similar vintage events. Score this one in the correct column, at least for two-wheelers, and by way of example our resident motorcycle guru Jim O’Clair cited the Spirit of Sturgis (introduced in 2016) and Sons of Speed (which debuted in 2017). On the four-wheel side, David Conwill reminds us that the RPM Nationals filled a void created when TROG opted not to return to California. In any event, TROG’s explosive popularity—coverage was everywhere in 2017—means that more such gatherings are inevitable.
edited text credit: © Kurt Ernst via Hemmings